Market Snapshot & Key Metrics
Real-time indicators
Current Rate (EUR Base)
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Waiting for data...
Annual Volatility
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Std Dev of Log Returns
Period Average
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Mean Price
Period Min
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Period Max
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Analysis Highlights & Insights

Trend Signal Determination: The "Bearish" or "Bullish" signal is primarily based on the relationship between the Short-Term Moving Average (SMA 20) and the Long-Term Moving Average (SMA 50).

  • Bearish (▼): SMA 20 is below SMA 50. This indicates downward momentum, suggesting the currency might continue ensuring lower costs if you wait (but risky if it reverses).
  • Bullish (▲): SMA 20 is above SMA 50. This indicates upward momentum, suggesting prices are rising and it might be wise to lock in rates now.

Recommendation: Use the Volatility metric to gauge risk. High volatility (>10%) implies larger potential swings, warranting more conservative hedging (e.g., Forward Contracts) regardless of the trend.

Price History & Moving Averages
-- SMA 20 -- SMA 50
Historical Performance
Recalculated from full historical data (10y)
Period Last Min Max Avg StdDev (Vol) Change % (vs Avg)
Corporate Risk & Strategy Analysis
Based on period purchases of ---
Current Benchmark: ---
Real Market Rate: ---
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Current Market Position

Estimated Cost (Spot)
$0.00
If purchased today
1-Day Potential Exposure (95% Conf.)
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Statistical estimate of maximum expected daily cost increase.

Buying Strategy Comparison

Cost impact analysis of alternative FX execution strategies over the selected period.
Daily Operations
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Total: ---
Avg rate (DCA)
Weekday Operations
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Total: ---
Avg on selected day
Worst Case (Peak)
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Total: ---
Bought at Peak
Analysis Logic & Methodology

This tool connects to the Frankfurter API (ECB data) to retrieve historical daily closing rates.

  • Min & Max (High/Low): Calculated from the Daily Closing Prices within the selected period. (Note: Intra-day spikes are not captured by daily closing data).
  • Realized Volatility (StdDev): Measures how much the price fluctuated during the specific selected period.
    - Calculated using the Standard Deviation of Daily Log Returns.
    - Annualized using 252 trading days (Standard Finance Practice).
  • Interpretation (4% vs 10%): If "1 Week" shows 4% volatility while "1 Year" shows 10%, it means the market was unusually calm during that specific week compared to the yearly average. Short periods reflect recent conditions, not long-term averages.
  • Risk (VaR 95%): Estimates the maximum expected loss in a single day with 95% confidence, based on the period's volatility.